In partnership with CBSSports.com
Online Now 45
Online now 83 Record: 7245 (2/26/2012)
You have no favorite boards.
The most viewed topics.
The most replied to topics.
The most up-voted topics.
The most down-voted topics.
The most up-voted posters.
The most down-voted posters.
The most followed posters.
Belmont is a great shooting team, over 50% from the field (4th in the nation), but did not shoot well against the some of the better teams on the schedule.
They shot 36% against Stanford, 32.4% against Kansas and 37% against Central Florida.
Now they did shoot well against VCU (54%), Middle Tennessee (50%) and South Dakota State (55.8%)
Stanford, VCU and Kansas out-rebounded them by a combined 35 (14, 11, 10)
Editor-In-Chief of Wildcat Sport Report and co-host of the Arizona football and basketball pre and postgame shows on 1490 and 104.9.
Not only are they a great shooting team but, as I try to interpret their stats, thery appear to be very well coached into taking only good shots.
If you look at Reese Chamberlain and Brandon Baker, who are at the low end of the heavy minutes played, and while they have few points per game, they both have high scoring percentages. Such discipline could prove deadly for a very undiscplined and poor perimiter shooting Arizona team.
Clark is a shooting beast but, the team leans on a 7 player rotation. SLC's elevation sits at 4300 feet and may challege the Bruins.
Arizona could use their athleticism and exploit Belmont's propensity for turnovers.....especially Kerron Johnson.
Here are AZ's stats:
Similar record and schedule to Bucknell last year
Bucknell, Belmont.... Whatever
"Arizona has no tradition" - Bill Walsh
"We have a tradition of kicking Bill Walsh's ass" - Teddy Bruschi
Wineknow, you're starting to bore us to death. Belmont won the OVC regular season and the OVC Tournament so show a little respect. As for Bucknell, guess what, they made the NCAA Tournament this year so they're pretty good as well. In fact, don't be surprised to see Bucknell pull the upset in the first/second round this week.
As for Belmont's shooting, definitely a legitimate concern. I won't be concerned if Arizona plays defense like they have in their three most recent games (ASU, Colorado and UCLA), but will be concerned if come Thursday they look like the slumping Cats from mid-February.
Should be exciting. As 99.9% of college basketball fans know, nothing comes easy and no opponent can be taken lightly in the Big Dance, just ask Lute Olson, Coach K, Jim B, Tom Izzo, Bill Self, Bobby Knight and the other "great" coaches who've been bounced on day 1.
National Basketball Recruiting Analyst
Football Writers Association of America
U.S. Basketball Writers Association
Gary, Bucknell does have a shot at Butler...
But even more important, is the obvious fact that "AZ" is NOT the same team we were last year... We now have a front line among many other improvements...
BEAR DOWN boys... The best is yet to come....
OK here it is...
I expect the game to be close for a while with Belmont hitting a good percentage of 3's... But if we push the pace instead of slowing it down, the second half will see their legs to begin to tire and the 3's wont be dropping... If we coral the rebounds, I see AZ pulling away to beat Belmont handily...
I predict a 15+ point win... But will be happy with a one point win...
In the event we somehow get bounced, the CATS will still be my team and I pledge to not throw any player or coach under the bus...
Bear Down boys....
I was having a little fun in a cautionary way.
Bucknell beat us and lost to Syracuse last year and played just about no one else. Similarly, Belmont lost to Kansas but beat Stanford this year.
Bucknell had Mike Muscala, Belmont Ian Clark both of whom fill the stat sheet well - very complete players.
Both coaches seem to emphasize smart, fundamental BB.
And I picked Bucknell to upset Butler. I get that I'm just an idiot when it comes to college hoops, but the single best predictor I have found (and this was a tip from Phil Steele in an article in his football magazine that I apply to BB) is to look at teams with multiple blow outs in a season. For me it is never just the loss, it's the type of loss. I won a bracket pool about five years ago on this methodology and nearly won ours two years ago, if you recall. Butler is a popular choice, their coach is the golden boy right now in college hoops and they've had several really great years recently. But this is a down year for them. They play in the Atlantic 10 which is grossly over rated the definition of east coast bias - hence the 6 seed. They got destroyed/blown out by Xavier, Illinois, St Louis (twice) and VCU. They did have a few great wins, including one against Indiana (early Dec) - but my guess is they are just not firing on all cylinders. They are 6-4 headed into the tourney and 4 of those wins were against the bottom 1/2 of their weak ass conference.
Bucknell did not play anything like the OOC schedule Butler did and their conference is even weaker (Patriot). BUT... when it comes to blowouts, they have 18 wins of 10+ points and 5 that were 20+. They have one single loss of more than 3 points. The second best predictor is maturity. Bucknell starts 3 seniors and 2 juniors and have a seven man rotation, 6 of whom are upper classmen. Butler starts 2 seniors, goes 8 or 9 deep, but has lost of freshmen and sophs in the mix. They are a young team, reloading. I'm taking Bucknell. Anything can happen, but I think Bucknell pulls the upset.
Bucknell, Butler, Belmont......I'm begining to really dislike Universities that start with a "B".
I like this approach to bracket picking. Pretty smart.
Well, this method is having me re-think my pick of Minnesota over UCLA. Look at the end of their schedule and check out the beat downs that they took.
I guess that makes Syracuse a bad pick too since Louisville trounced them in their conference finals.
i always have to allow for a blow out or two for any team. It's the teams that have several that you have to be careful of.
Can UCLA win without Adams? Is Minn over rated just because they are in the Big 10? Anyone with any insight on this one?
Looks like some Vegas guys picking the upset https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bq_NmkFWVtE
wow. Two guys were wearing jackets at least 3 sizes too big and the other guy looks like an extra on Miami Vice.
It's too fashionable to pick Belmont. We'd better be up for this game, and I know they are good, but everyone and their mother is picking Belmont as an upset and that many people cannot be right about any upset.
Arizona should have plenty of billboard material regarding Belmont. Everywhere I go, or any show I watch is talking about Belmont. I wouldn't be surprised to see Belmont get hot at the start of the game and knock down some treys. The hope is the early makes are fools gold and Arizona officially begins to wear them down with their size.
A key in beating a 3-Point shooting team is obviously not allow them to shoot 3's. In other words, Arizona needs to chase the Bruins off the 3-Point line and make them score in mid-range over the outstretched hands of our big men (this won't be easy). Rather than the hard hedge, I expect to see Arizona "switch" the screens a little more than normal because it's better to have Brandon Ashley switching to a guard to take away the 3-Pointer and risk getting beat off the dribble (assuming our help D is rotating properly) than having Ashley hedge and possible leave enough space on the hedge for the ball handler to pull up and shoot a trey off the screen. Like I said, take away the 3-Point looks and the Cats should score enough against Belmont on the offensive end of the floor to get the job done.
This post was edited by Gary Randazzo 13 months ago
Crunched some numbers yesterday. Arizona holds opponents to 7.2 points below their scoring average but allow them to shoot 1.7% better from 3. That isn't something you see with moat teams. I have a feeling that this is because they are pretty successful at chasing teams off the three...I.e. fewer 3pt attempts. I agree with you Gary...chase them off the three line and make them shoot jump shots over Arizona's length.
I have to believe all the crap about us getting bounced by a mid-major is motivating the boys to no end...
Make Belmont play some D and let the altitude help take their legs out... Their Jumpers wont go down by the 2nd half...
Cant wait to hear all the talking heads eat their hats for going against the CATS...
This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by Pin High 13 months ago
The one fear I do have is Arizona (on offense) getting baited into a 3-Point shooting contest, especially if Belmont knocks a couple down in a row some point. Obviously, I'm thinking of a scenario where Belmont hits a trey, then Mark Lyons comes down and jacks up a trey to try and match it, only to see Belmont secure a long rebound race down the floor and bury a 3 in transition. Stuff like that would hurt Arizona, but if we make Belmont play in a defensive stance for 20-25 secs per possession it should take away their legs in the second half, making their outside shooting less efficient. That's kind of what Stanford did.
I actually see Arizona with a very strong first half and then letting the "Bruins" back into it after the halftime break.
NJ and Parrom steps up with five minutes left and Arizona by 9, maybe ten.
Could be right. That's been the trend in Arizona's last three games (ASU, CU, and UCLA) where the Cats one two and lost one.
Arizona is going to play their best game of the season. Heard it here first.
Hopefully not too pessimistic but we really need to come out of the break on fire. Just haven't seen that in what seems like forever.
You all should be happy to know that I needed a 14/3 upset somewhere (I can smell it ). I figured Harvard vs. UNM was a good as any.
Or Montana vs. Syracuse...
This post was edited by Ashton 13 months ago
I hope so. If this is the case, they need to not let up after getting a big lead.
247Sports In partnership with CBS Sports